Download Energy Time Series Forecasting: Efficient and Accurate by Lars Dannecker PDF

By Lars Dannecker

Lars Dannecker built a singular on-line forecasting strategy that considerably improves how forecasts are calculated. It raises forecasting potency and accuracy, in addition to permitting the method to conform to diversified occasions and purposes. enhancing the forecasting potency is a key pre-requisite for making sure solid electrical energy grids within the face of an expanding volume of renewable power assets. it's also very important to facilitate the stream from static day forward electrical energy buying and selling in the direction of extra dynamic real-time marketplaces. the web forecasting approach is discovered by means of a couple of ways at the logical in addition to at the actual layer that we introduce during this book.

Nominated for the Georg-Helm-Preis 2015 provided by means of the Technische Universität Dresden.

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Extra info for Energy Time Series Forecasting: Efficient and Accurate Forecasting of Evolving Time Series from the Energy Domain

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Fig. 14 Products offered on the European wholesale market (Source: [196]). Within the wholesale markets of the European Union, typically two different market models are used: over-the-counter (OTC) markets and energy exchanges. OTC markets deal with direct, bilateral contracts between two parties. The trading is typically conducted using a broker and both involved parties are known to each other.

With an increasing amount of fluctuating renewable energy sources however, the production site is much more volatile and differs much stronger between multiple reference points. In addition, despite large advancements in the last years, forecasting for renewable energy sources still provides a relatively high forecast error [53, 157]. In Germany Moest et al. assume a prediction error for wind power of 7 GW, resulting in a forecast error almost as high as suddenly occurring extraordinary fluctuations [174].

Despite the issues regarding availability and volatility the expansion of renewable energy source in Germany continues, especially considering wind and solar power. 1 bn. e in renewable production of electricity where made, whereof 15 bn. 95 bn. e for wind power. This steadily increasing share of renewable energy source in Germany and Europe will have significant impacts on electricity markets and grids [44]. Thus, it is necessary to specifically deal with the reduced availability and increased volatility of their energy production.

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