Download Arctic climate impact assessment by ACIA - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment PDF

By ACIA - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

The Arctic is now experiencing the most swift and serious weather swap in the world. Over the subsequent a hundred years, weather swap is predicted to speed up, contributing to significant actual, ecological, social, and financial alterations, a lot of that have already all started. alterations in arctic weather also will impact the remainder of the area via elevated worldwide warming and emerging sea degrees. Arctic weather effect review used to be ready through a global staff of over three hundred scientists, specialists, and an expert contributors of indigenous groups. The record has been completely researched, is totally referenced, and offers the 1st finished assessment of arctic weather switch, alterations in ultraviolet radiation and their affects for the area and for the realm. it really is illustrated in complete colour all through. the consequences supplied the clinical foundations for the ACIA synthesis document - affects of a Warming Arctic - released by way of Cambridge college Press in 2004.

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5 Fig. 7. Annual land-surface air temperature trends for (a) 1900 to 2003; (b) 1900 to 1945; (c) 1946 to 1965; and (d) 1966 to 2003, calculated using the GHCN dataset (updated from Peterson and Vose, 1997). 38 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities”. There are studies showing that an anthropogenic warming signal has been detected at the regional scale. For example, Karoly et al. (2003) concluded that temperature variations in North America during the second half of the 20th century were probably not due to natural variability alone.

McCabe et al. (2001) noted a general poleward shift in Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity starting around 1989, coincident with the positive trend in the AO/NAO time series. 2c shows the pattern of surface air temperature anomalies associated with the AO/NAO time series. Negative surface air temperature anomalies centered in Davis Strait are consistent with southeasterly advection of cold arctic air by the AO/NAO-related winds. Easterly advection of warmer air, also linked to AO/NAO-related winds, accounts for the pattern of positive anomalies in surface air temperature over Eurasia.

Seasonal land-surface air temperature trends for the period 1966 to 2003 calculated using the GHCN dataset (updated from Peterson and Vose, 1997). 39 Chapter 2 • Arctic Climate: Past and Present amplification). For example, Polyakov et al. (2002) concluded that observed trends in the Arctic over the entire 20th century did not show polar amplification. , northern Eurasia and northwestern North America). Serreze et al. (2000), however, noted that the changes in circulation were “not inconsistent” with anthropogenic forcing.

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