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By Adib Kanafani, Daniel Sperling (auth.)

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The forecast of interzonal movements on the road network will be carried out as follows. First, future zonal surpluses and deficits (including international imports and exports) will be derived by commodity class from exogenous forecasts of zonal production and attraction. Second, the spatial distribution of commodity flows will be determined by a growth factor technique for the short term and by a linear programming technique (Le. Commodity Flow Assignment Model) for the long term. Special attention will be devoted to controlling inconsistencies in the forecasts by a careful analysis of market evolution for the principal types of commodity classes.

Finally, the relative importance of transportation supply characteristics for passengers and commodity classes will be determined. This information constitutes an important element for future modal split analysis. p.. Demand Analysis Supply Analysis F E 1 Inventory Institutional and Financial Analysis D A Interzonal Movements on the Road Network Forecast of H Orerational and Capital Improvements G r K ! Future Modal Options t 1 C -. Analysis, and Evaluation of Critical Corridor Alternatives Generation.

Study the impacts of lesser or greater subsidies on the provision of those services. g. guaranteed and lowinterest loans for trucks, lower passenger fares, direct cash subsidies to railroads) on the structure and growth of the economy and on market prices of goods. 4 Analyze the implications of implementing more extensive programs of user financing. Examine each mode independently and determine the economic and social impacts of increased dependence on direct user charges. Determine the effects on income distribution.

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