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By Yi Lin

Even supposing scientists have successfully hired the techniques of chance to handle the complicated challenge of prediction, sleek technological know-how nonetheless falls brief in developing real predictions with significant lead instances of zero-probability significant mess ups. the new earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and China are tragic reminders of the serious want for more desirable tools of predicting natural mess ups. Drawing on their mammoth functional adventure and theoretical stories, Dr. Yi Lin and Professor Shoucheng OuYang examine some of the problems that exist within the modern system of technology to provide the knowing required to improve our ability to forecast and get ready for such events. featuring a sequence of latest understandings, theories, and a brand new procedure of method, Irregularities and Prediction of significant mess ups simplifies the world-class challenge of prediction right into a sequence of initiatives that may be discovered, mastered, and utilized within the research and prediction of coming near near alterations in fabrics or fluids. those the world over revered authors introduce their novel approach to digitization for facing abnormal details, confirmed powerful for predicting transitional alterations in occasions. additionally they: Unveil a brand new method for forecasting zero-probability ordinary failures spotlight the explanations for universal forecasting mess ups suggest a style for resolving the secret of nonlinearity contain a variety of real-life case reports that illustrate the best way to correctly digitize on hand details Supply proven tools for forecasting small-probability traditional mess ups This authoritative source presents a scientific dialogue of the non-evolutionality of the trendy approach of science—analyzing its features and barriers. through bearing on the necessity for switch in a number of the basics in easy medical theories and proper methodologies, this e-book offers the medical neighborhood with the certainty and technique required to forecast zero-probability significant mess ups with tremendously greater accuracy.

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Extra info for Irregularities and Prediction of Major Disasters (Systems Evaluation, Prediction and Decision-Making)

Sample text

It is not about predicting what is about to occur. ” What Laplace said in fact admits that without knowing the initial value, modern science will have no clue about the future. That is exactly the problem that current weather forecasts, earthquake prediction, and other future-telling face. It has been listed as one of the world-class difficult problems. So, it is a call of our modern time and a must in the development of science for evolution science, by which the world is known through analyzing materials, to appear and develop.

Evidently, solving nonlinear equations using the methods developed for invariant materials of the inertial system in essence indicates that people still do not understand nonlinearity. Many results obtained out of the studies of nonlinear problems by using linearization in substance do not have much practical significance and misguide the future development of science. To this end, we will provide an alternative solution. , 2002; OuYang and Lin, 2006a; OuYang, in press). Our work indicates that the problem of nonlinearity has been fully resolved; the method of digitization can be employed to deal with irregular information; and there is no further need to invest additional tax dollars to tangle with this problem that cannot be dealt with using quantities.

It has been listed as one of the world-class difficult problems. So, it is a call of our modern time and a must in the development of science for evolution science, by which the world is known through analyzing materials, to appear and develop. What we have to point out is that science itself is a process, and in its development, conscious behaviors of man have to be part of it. When people did not find a way to deal with events, using quantities to substitute for events could be seen as a human wisdom; after we have found ways to deal with events directly, if people continue to treat events as quantities and try their best to employ quantities without discrimination, then substituting events by quantities would become an intelligence deficiency of mankind.

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