Download Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk by Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther PDF

By Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther

This booklet fills a severe desire in environment forth the position of recent possibility research in coping with disaster danger. there is not any similar reference paintings for this crucial topic sector. The e-book is easily written and good equipped. It comprises contributions from a few of the so much exclusive specialists within the fields of hazard research and danger administration. It moves an excellent stability among the technical elements of the topic and the sensible facets of selection making.This booklet is strongly steered for those who needs to make judgements in regards to the administration of affects of disaster dangers together with these in either the private and non-private zone.

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1 By definition, the coefficient of variation is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. The effect of this high uncertainty is clearest on L3. If there were no variability in the losses, L3 would not be affected because no event is capable of reaching a $30 million loss, as previously stated. 28% that an event would cause some loss to L3. This illustrative example shows how catastrophe modeling provides a means of both quantifying risks and allocating them among stakeholders. Using these metrics, it is possible to make rational, informed decisions on how to price risks and determine how much coverage is needed based on an 1 Note that the assumption of a constant coefficient of variation for all events is not realistic and is used only for ease of illustration.

In addition to identifying and assessing sources of earthquake activity, DOGAMI has been using the federal government’s loss estimation model, HAZUS, to quantify potential losses due to earthquakes on both the local and statewide levels (Wang and Clark, 1999; Vinson and Miller, 2000). The HAZUS study was a catalyst for action within the state government. The Department of Administrative Services, which handles risk management for state-owned facilities, increased the level of earthquake insurance coverage following discussions with DOGAMI.

4 Determining Whether to Provide Coverage In his study, James Stone (1973) sheds light on insurers’ decision rules as to when they would market coverage for a specific risk. Stone indicates that firms are interested in maximizing expected profits subject to satisfying a constraint related to the survival of the firm. He also introduces a constraint regarding the stability of the insurer’s operation. However, insurers have traditionally not focused on this constraint in dealing with catastrophic risks.

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